To help you make informed decisions on which first basemen will provide which type of stat help, I’ve compiled the averages from several projection models.
The table below is a consensus for all of the projections for third base with each player’s rank against other players at that position. Then each ranking is averaged out for a score. Read the nerdy fine print at the very bottom to learn how to use. These do not have “weights” added.
For example, Matt Carpenter has dual eligibility with 2B and has a greater track record, so he’ll be ranked much higher than Will Middlebrooks in the official rankings. However, you can see what a steal David Wright (pictured above) is compared to average draft position based on the pure projections stats.
Here are the projections and rankings (remember this doesn’t include weights):
For fun, I include an Rank Score without the stolen bases.
Boom:
Unlike our other projections charts, there are much fewer surprises with the corner spot. David Wright has had injury concerns but he is still capable of being the #2 third baseman. Miguel Cabrera is, of course, on a tier by himself. Martin Prado had a horrible first half last year, but is still a top ten guy thanks to contributions in all five categories. Take out the stolen base(s) and Pablo Sandoval is a top guy thanks to #5 ranking in RBI and #7 in batting average. His loss of weight may see his runs increase too. Look for Josh Donaldson to repeat last year with a top 12 ranking in all five categories.
Bust:
As discussed earlier, Matt Carpenter’s lack of power really hurts him. Projection data sets didn’t care for his chances to repeat the batting average and RBIs, which were heavily depended upon a very high BABIP. It is time to turn the page on Mike Moustakas’ breakout yearly talk. Chase Headley is looking like he was a one-hit wonder in 2012. Trevor Plouffe went *poof*. There is little to no help beyond Headley. Look to a first baseman if you need someone to fill in a “CI” slot.
Here are the basics and ‘need to knows’ to understand how to use the chart:
· Projections for the basic five fantasy baseball categories: SB, HR, RBI, R, and AVG. Projections are based on several trusted projections datasets. A consensus removes the need to put all of your trust in a single source.
· Each player is ranked about the other players in that position. Their overall ranking is displayed in the “RANK SCORE”. That is the average in each of the rankings.
· You’ll notice that several players are higher/lower than you expect to see on a normal “rankings” list. That is because the “Rank Score” is not weighted for such things as position flexibility, stat importance, boom and bust probability, injury history, at-bat projections or year over year consistency.
· Over the next couple weeks, the CraveOnline fantasy team will be releasing their rankings for each position. I recommend using their rankings to give you the best recommendations around.
· I personally take these projections and add weights to determine my own rankings. From there, I’ll build a ‘draft map’ to help me strategize which targeted player to take in the draft. It helps to grab my “undervalued” guys at the right time. Last year, it was Matt Harvey and Starling Marte.
Now go forth and “win baseball” as my non-understanding girlfriend likes to say.
Brian Reddoch is a CraveOnline reporter and rabid fan of all teams Seattle. You can follow him on Twitter @ReddReddoch or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
