I don’t think it’s with any hyperbole to state that inarguably the greatest TV series to ever grace screens in the history of mankind, Survivor has single-handedly moulded the concept of reality television, nay entertainment, in the 21st century and is better than anything ever, ever, of all time, full stop.
With Australia having its second crack at making a local version of the hit US show, hopefully providing a totally not-embarrassing attempt at recreating its majesty, Crave Australia is diving in deep ahead of its premiere later this year, with a completely unnecessary breakdown of how the elimination process will go down, based purely on the three seconds of video and single paragraph descriptions of the castaways we have to go on. Super-nerd Curtis Jobe, has the definitive take below.
With Channel 10’s release of the names and bios of our 24 castaways, the Superfan community here in Oz has been given our first batch of fodder to feed our envy, assumptions and, of course, predictions.
For the avid fan it quickly becomes less of a question of ‘Who is my favourite?’ than it is about ‘Who will win?’ Sure, our info pool is limited and Survivor strategy is the antithesis to an exact science, but between the basic details, brief bios, photos and two short video teasers, we have been gifted with enough data to assess the state of play.
After 32 US seasons there are certain trends that have emerged and whilst there is no clear mould that can be cast over all winners (or all first boots for that matter) sometimes, stereotypes hold true. It helps that under the guidance of the US production company, Channel 10 have ‘cast to type’ in many cases and this can help us to distinguish the chaff from those with real potential.
Below is one superfan’s take on how this may all play out and who is likely to claim the title of Sole Survivor and the cash prize that goes with it.
Early Boots
24th – Des. Des’ already depleted stock fell considerably with the release of the most recent promo. ‘If they don’t get rid of me first…’ The foreshadowing is clear. This, coupled with the fact that he will be seen as a challenge liability in the tribe phase of the game, leads me to believe that his torch will be Mr Lapaglia’s debut snuffing.
Is this the face of a first-bootee? Almost definitely.
23rd – Brooke. Her bio describes her as ‘stubborn’ and tells us she will ‘always stand up for herself’. If this is all you are bringing to the table in a SOCIAL game… well, enjoy your one week in paradise Brooke.
22nd – Kat. Like Brooke, Kat doesn’t seem to bring the right skill set to the island. She appears less abrasive than Brooke but still, this ‘middle class’ 20 something may quickly find herself out of her depth.
21st – Andrew. Following trend from their American predecessors it’s no surprise to see a professional poker player in the mix. Whilst, on paper, this seems useful, in the past professional strategists have lacked the social skills to back up their astute observations. Also, with a presumably prolonged tribal phase (given the size of the cast) Andrew may have difficulty pulling his weight in challenges and around camp.
20th – Matt. Matt is the first of ‘misfit’ of the bunch. Whilst quirky, unique characters make for dynamic casting, individuals who sit slightly askew of the status quo don’t often fare well. There’s a difference between providing entertainment value once a week to viewers and living with actual human tribe mates 24/7. I’m sure Magician Matt will stick around for a bit but after 10ish days expect him to disappear from our screens.
19th – Barry. I can hear it now. The protestations of the dominant, mostly youthful, alliance lamenting how unfair it is that they have to discard Barry in the interests of tribal survival. He’s such a nice guy. Great for morale. Epic social game. But he can’t hold his own in challenges and deadweight needs to be cut, even if it is colourful.
18th – Kristie. Our second ‘misfit’, Kristie will take a little while to ramp up the irritation factor, but it will come. There are definitely parallels to be drawn between Kristie and other young, female free spirits and, historically, they struggle to make the merg.
Hobbies: Getting on people’s nerves (probably).
17th – Craig. Whilst there is nothing offensive about Craig, my gut just tells me he won’t bring it to the game. Sorry that I can’t back this one up Craig and I’m more than willing to eat my words if you happen to surpass the expectations I have of you.
16th – Bianca. As above… After combing through the details and becoming familiar with my new best friends (and enemies) I kept forgetting who Bianca was. Also worth mentioning that few of these early boots haven’t been featured in any promos. You’d think that real game makers would be pushed in the early releases.
Dark Horses
15th – Sue. Sue, along with my next few picks, have pretty substantial variables. Her bio and promos paint her as tough as nails and this could just as easily work for her as it does against her. Depending on the make up of her tribe, Sue could be a bastion of strength and determination or a hard-nosed outcast. Given the size of the cast though, I fear her liabilities outweigh her assets.
14th – Peter I’m hesitant to easily write off all of our elder contestants. Being 50+ is not a death sentence in Survivor, but it does add another obstacle in the highly physical tribal phase. The breadth of Peter’s life experiences makes me think he is better placed than his contemporaries to crack the mid game, but he will have an uphill battle.
13th – Conner. One of only two contestants to reference being a Survivor fan, Conner may have the strategic skills to collect and maintain a solid alliance. But the repeated themes of ‘mateship’ that production keep banging on about make me think that Conner is going to need to adapt if he wants to make it deep. His law/politics background doesn’t exactly scream camaraderie.
What a bunch of losers (statistically speaking).
Jurors
12th – Tegan Tegan sits square in the middle for me. There’re no red flags that mark her as an early target but nothing about her has a winner vibe either. Her physical skills as a PT to the stars should keep her off the radar pre-merge provided she doesn’t rock the boat.
11th – Rohan. Rohan is placed precisely where his stereotype warrants. Unless he is way more obnoxious than his bio hints he should breeze through the tribe phase. At the merge, however, Rohan has the makings of an early target as all the reasons to keep him for tribal strength become reasons to get him out quickly post-merge.
10th – Phoebe. Phoebe seems very non-offensive. I think her social game will be strong and she seems physical enough to viably make the merge. I kind of expect Phoebe to be a casualty of the numbers. She won’t start high on anyone’s hit list but as the numbers dwindle she’ll face the axe.
9th – Evan. Like Phoebe, Evan seems very MOR (Middle of the Road in Survivor speak). This isn’t a bad thing. Typically being the best or worst at anything causes more concern than being consistently mediocre. But at some point you gotta pull away from the pack and by Evan’s own admission he is neither the smartest or most athletic. Headed to the jury house for sure.
8th – Flick. Expect Flick’s social game to be on point. If she’s anything like her young, spunky and bubbly American counterparts, Flick should find herself included in many alliances as an easy vote who is fun to be around. Of the whole cast, Flick is the most ‘goat’ like (someone carried to the end because they are cool but beatable). Flick could go deeper than this but goats rarely (not never) see the cash monies.
7th – Kate. From here, we move to castaways I see as viable winners but I will pin my strongest hopes on a select few further on. Kate just seems like a normal human. I would definitely grab a beer with her. And this is important in Survivor where casting demands see so many people who are just slightly, or not so slightly, ‘off’. Back up her normalcy with the sense of resilience and determination and I expect Kate to have a strong impact on the game. One that could ultimately be her downfall.
Kate: Can throw things, which is a plus.
6th – JL With her background, age and descriptions of physical and mental toughness I expect JL to be a powerhouse in challenges. She seems like a fighter and my gut says she is going to be consistently in the mix. She’ll have her head and heart in the game from Day 1 and won’t go down without a fight.
5th – El I love the diversity of El’s bio. Disciplined Army Corporal. Founder of charities. Girly Girl, Brutal Warrior. This varied CV bodes well for El in a game where so many people have competing agendas. I think El will manage to relate to most people. Elements of her bio actually cross over with many others. If El isn’t closer to the money in my books it’s only because she is TOO strong and threats like her tend to fall slightly short.
4th – Sam. I’m trying to figure out why Sam is so much deeper in my list than Rohan. Their bios are variations on a theme. It’s the headshot. The two photos sit side by side but Sam’s brings more of an ‘every man’ vibe compared to Rohan’s, which could be included in his modelling CV. Sam will be a favourite amongst his peers and viewers and his likeability will see him get a whiff of the win.
FINAL THREE
3rd – Kylie. Kylie is so well placed for this game. No viable reason to target her pre-merge. Strong, likeable, experienced. By no means old, she does sit on the northern end of the bell curve, but not enough to consider her a liability. In fact, her age may be a strength.
As a Gen Xer, she can more easily bridge the gap between her tribe mates. On top of that, once she makes the merge I don’t see her being on anyone’s radar. This is where being in the middle can really work for you. As the tribe phase nears completion Kylie may creep closer to the top of the boot list. But before she gets there, the game changes and she fades into the background.
Ladies and Gentleman, your Australian Survivor Final Three: Kylie, Nick & Lee.
2nd – Nick. This is a tough one for me personally. Swap out the name and location and I am Nick. As a result, I’m clearly rooting for him, but a strong sense of jealousy also makes me want to see him fail. He won’t though. A Superfan in what seems to be a cast of amateurs, Nick’s intimate knowledge of all 32 seasons of the US version will see him bring a loaded rucksack of strategic options.
Nick will risk overplaying, but Survivor is a game and knowledge of rules and options will make it difficult to get rid of Nick. Hell, he seems likeable AF (no personal bias) so I’m not sure anyone will even want to get rid of him until it is too late.
1st – Lee. How can you go past this guy? Seriously, he’d be a contender in any context, but chuck in the Oz Factor and this guy is golden. Lee will benefit from the mateship theme where Nick will likely suffer.
He’ll play from the heart and that’s gonna go down well. I predict a battle of giants between them, where two opposing Survivor ideologies are put to the test. Given what we know, I expect Lee’s approach to come up trumps.
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So there you have it. To all 24 castaways, know that I would much rather be a subject of this article than it’s author and I respect the hell out of you for getting to play. Just don’t fuck it up. We really want a second season.
Australian Survivor kicks off on Channel Ten, after the Olympics. Find out more here.
