In some ways, the weekend of the Divisional Round Playoffs in the NFL is the best sports weekend of the year. Football fans are all but guaranteed four quality football games and they are spaced out in such a way that the only thing preventing you from watching all the action is poor planning – or an emergency appendectomy.
Unless you are from one of the eight remaining NFL cities still fighting for the Super Bowl crown, your team (and your fantasy squad) is done for the year, but that doesn’t mean the fun is over. Sure, gambling money is illegal in most places, but that doesn’t mean you can’t bet a few jellybeans with your friends, casual acquaintances and that guy who always asks you for a quarter at the bus stop (not that he has any). With that in mind, here’s how Vegas sees things shaping up in the AFC.
Indianapolis Colts (+7) at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS
The case for the Colts: In order for the Colts to come into Gillette Stadium and defeat the Patriots on their home turf, second-year QB Andrew Luck is going to have to come up huge. As he showed last week when Indianapolis defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 45-44 after trailing big at halftime, Luck is more than capable of delivering in the clutch. The New England defense can’t stop a nosebleed at this point and if the teams get into a shootout, there’s certainly reason to believe that Luck could orchestrate a game-winning drive ending with an Adam Vinatieri field goal. Just a hunch, but Vinatieri will probably be fine kicking in whatever weather conditions New England is experiencing.
The case for the Patriots: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are arguably the best QB-Coach tandem left in the playoffs in either conference and they usually win games on the field that they are supposed to win on paper. Banged-up or not, the Patriots defense is still capable of making big plays — and giving up big ones — as they showed in Week 16 against the Baltimore Ravens and there’s no way that Belichick is going to let his players allow T.Y. Hilton to do what he did against the Chiefs. Unlike the Seahawks, the Patriots went 8-0 at home during the regular season.
The smart play: As great a story as it would be, it seems unlikely that Luck will lead the Colts to victory Saturday. In his lone game against the Patriots last season, he tied his career high with four turnovers and passed for just two touchdowns. Sure that was then and this is now, but Luck and the Colts are probably a year away from being able to win this type of game, especially on the road. Take the Pats and lay the points.
San Diego Chargers (+9.5) at Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High 4:40 p.m. ET, CBS
The case for the Chargers: San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers led his team into Denver about a month ago and emerged with a 27-20 victory where he threw two touchdowns and committed zero turnovers. Despite his reputation for being a gunslinger, Rivers has calmed down this season and boasts a 27:13 TD-to-INT ratio against the Broncos in 14 career games. Despite lacking any truly game-breaking talent, the Chargers have found a way to win in five straight games and come in as the proverbial hot team. As the Ravens and Joe Flacco proved once again last year, sometimes that can be enough.
The case for the Broncos: The Broncos had one of, if not the best, offenses in league history in 2013 and that shouldn’t change just because it’s a new year. Peyton Manning will likely be able to move Denver up and down the field at will and the points will come early and in bunches. Denver’s defense is terrible, but it remains to be seen whether the Chargers have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Broncos in a high-scoring affair. Manning is known to get a little tight in big games, but he would have to suffer a Charlie Sheen “winning”-esque meltdown to blow this one.
The smart play: For whatever reason, it seems like Manning has the tendency to turtle in clutch spots whereas Rivers at least shows up and goes out blazing (sometimes with poor results). Denver is clearly the better team, is playing at home and has the advantage of having been able to rest for an additional week, but it doesn’t appear like the Chargers have any intention of going quietly. While they might not win straight-up (although it’s certainly possible), it seems like a pretty good bet that San Diego will at least cover.
Evan Bleier is a freelance writer based out of wherever he can plug in his laptop. You can send him questions, comments and Buffalo wing suggestions @itishowitis or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
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