If you just pick the next highest rated guy, you will construct an off-balanced team. For example, if you get Mike Trout in the first round, do you need Ben Revere’s speed? No, but you definitely want to target the Philly speedster if you got the power-heavy Adam Jones.
The table below is a consensus projection for outfield with each player’s rank against other players at that position. Then each ranking is averaged out for a score. Read the nerdy fine print at the very bottom to learn how to use. These do not have “weights” added.
For example, Ryan Braun has questions surrounding his ability to hit without PEDs, so he’ll be ranked lower than the consistent Andrew McCutchen in the official rankings. However, you can see what a steal Bryce Harper (pictured above) is compared to average draft position based on the pure projections stats.
Here are the projections and rankings (remember this doesn’t include weights):
For fun, I include an Rank Score without the stolen bases.
Pay attention to the drop-offs between one player at the position and the next guy. The color coding will help you see the drop from one tier to the next.
Boom:
Yasiel Puig is real. The Spark Puig will ignite your team with Top 15 rankings in 4 of the 5 categories (SB down as he’ll leadoff). Wil Myers is real too with across the board contributions. Josh Hamilton is not a disappointment this year with a change of approach. He still has value with a 35th overall Rank Score. His lack of average shows but the 16th ranked RBI and HRs are pretty good that far down. Mark Trumbo is #2 ranked in homers and RBIs. Consider him a sleeping diamondback ready to bite. Projection models expect a bounce back year for Justin Upton and Ryan Braun.
Bust:
The projections don’t like Starling Marte. He had an unsustainable high BABIP. If Jacoby Ellsbury is healthy he will perform at a greater level. “Ifs” are great but … I’ll trust the bust potential of the guy being taken 19th overall but not projected to break the top 20 of his position. Carlos Gomez is not as loved by the computers as much as roto owners. Michael Cuddyer is an empty batting average (6th best for OF), but but lands in the 30’s for HR and Runs.
Here is how the bottom half shakes down:
Notes on bottom half:
This is where shallow leagues find fliers and sleepers and deeper leagues may be looking for solid contributions. Christian Yelich, Kole Calhoun, Adam Eaton and Khris Davis are potential breakout stars and may boom past these projections. Consider the above the tempered view. I’m a big believer in Oswaldo Arcia and that 20th ranked homer projections.
For consistency that can do better look no further than Austin Jackson, Torii Hunter, and Brett Gardner. Playing time and/or injury concerns suppress the projections of Michael Morse, Corey Hart, and Carl Crawford. Lots of speed can be found in Ben Revere and Leonys Martin. I wonder if the Mets saw projection data before signing Curtis Granderson to such a big contract in the off-season. He has huge bust potential.
Here are the basics and ‘need to knows’ to understand how to use the chart:
· Projections for the basic five fantasy baseball categories: SB, HR, RBI, R, and AVG. Projections are based on several trusted projections datasets. A consensus removes the need to put all of your trust in a single source.
· Each player is ranked about the other players in that position. Their overall ranking is displayed in the “RANK SCORE”. That is the average in each of the rankings.
· You’ll notice that several players are higher/lower than you expect to see on a normal “rankings” list. That is because the “Rank Score” is not weighted for such things as position flexibility, stat importance, boom and bust probability, injury history, at-bat projections or year over year consistency.
· Over the next couple weeks, the CraveOnline fantasy team will be releasing their rankings for each position. I recommend using their rankings to give you the best recommendations around.
· I personally take these projections and add weights to determine my own rankings. From there, I’ll build a ‘draft map’ to help me strategize which targeted player to take in the draft. It helps to grab my “undervalued” guys at the right time. Last year, it was Matt Harvey and Starling Marte.
Now go forth and “win baseball” as my non-understanding girlfriend likes to say.
Brian Reddoch is a CraveOnline reporter and rabid fan of all teams Seattle. You can follow him on Twitter @ReddReddoch or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
Photo Credit: Getty
