The latest update on Hurricane Patty has good news and bad news. The good news is that last week’s prediction that it could form between October 30 and November 2 has been pushed back. The results for several hurricane models today, October 30, predict that a tropical storm or hurricane could develop in the Caribbean by next week, but other trackers have lowered the risk of this happening. Here’s a breakdown of when Hurricane Patty might develop in the first week of November 2024.
When could Hurricane Patty develop?
It is possible for Hurricane Patty to develop in the Caribbean off the eastern coast of Nicaragua, according to the Canadian hurricane model (or CMC). Accuweather says that there is potential for tropical storm development in this region some time between November 2 and 5.
As explained by meteorologist Brian Shields, more popularly known as Mr. Weatherman on YouTube, the CMC model says that a low-pressure system will be moving northwest toward Belize over the course of the week. The German hurricane model, or ICON, predicts much the same, though it believes only a tropical storm will develop. This is due to warm ocean temperatures in the Central American Gyre, which is active near the end of the tropical season, which in this case is November.
On the other hand, both the American model (GFS) and the European model do not show much risk for tropical storm development at this time. Still, all four models show that there will be a lot of rainfall across Central America and the Caribbean, with storms hovering over Puerto Rico long enough for potential floods and mudslides.
Accuweather notes that any storms in the Caribbean in November tend to be unpredictable and that steering winds can move the trajectory of a storm toward Florida if the conditions are right. The tracking service is also monitoring a second region off the northeastern coast of Haiti as a low risk for potential tropical storm development.
