Several models have new information about Hurricane Tony and when it might form in the Caribbean as a tropical storm. The hurricane season generally ends in November, but warm waters in this region remain elevated so the possibility of a tropical storm developing remains a threat.
The last few hurricanes and tropical storms, including Hurricane Rafael and Sara, did not impact the United States too heavily compared to other systems this year. However, Hurricane Sara did cause widespread flooding and heavy rains in Central America, particularly along the coast of Honduras. If a tropical storm does form, which would still be rare this time of year, it will be officially named Tony.
When could Tropical Storm Tony develop?
Weather experts say Tropical Storm Tony could form in the Caribbean by this weekend, some time between November 29 and December 2.
That said, the chance of development is in the medium range based on a few models. Meterologist Brian Shields, also known as Mr. Weatherman on YouTube, in a report on November 25 shares that the European hurricane model shows there’s a 30% to 40% chance that a tropical storm will develop over the week. Its center would be focused in the Caribbean gyre near Costa Rica and Nicaragua, the same area that has generated multiple tropical storms and hurricanes this year.
Shields also reports that the American model (GFS) has a tropical storm developing in the region as well. However, he notes that the Canadian (CMC) and German (ICON) trackers do not share this, although he believes that the ICON model is verging on the edge toward a tropical storm.
Water temperatures in the region are still at 86 degrees Fahrenheit, which Shields says is more than enough for tropical storm development. Even if a named storm were to form, though, it is unlikely to affect the United States much as the water temperatures in the Gulf are much colder at this time of the year.
