With the margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump being so close in key states, many wonder whether there will be a 2024 election recount. We saw recounts in 2016 and 2020, and many voters have accepted them as a normal part of a presidential election. We’ll take a look at the odds of one happening in 2024 below.
Odds of a recount in the 2024 presidential election are low
Presidential recounts are extremely rare. There have only been three since the turn of the century:
- 2000: Florida
- Original Margin for Winner: 0.03%
- Recount Margin for Winner: 0.01%
- 2016: Wisconsin
- Original Margin for Winner: 0.80%
- Recount Margin for Winner: 0.82%
- 2020: Georgia
- Original Margin for Winner: 0.26%
- Recount Margin for Winner: 0.25%
Notably, none of the recounts changed the results of the presidential election. No legitimate sources have claimed that Harris will seek a recount in any state, but if she does, it’ll likely be one of the following:
- Michigan: 95% reporting
- Trump: 49.2%
- Harris: 48.9%
- Difference: 0.3%
- Wisconsin: 99% reporting
- Trump: 49.7%
- Harris: 48.8%
- Difference: 0.9%
However, even if she successfully challenged the vote in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump would still win due to his leads in Arizona, Alaska, and Nevada.
In all other states, Trump has won by a large enough margin that it’s unlikely Harris could successfully call for a recount without proof of a major issue with the election results. At this point, Harris has no path to win the White House, and according to Fox News she conceded the election to Trump in a phone call around 2 p.m. EST today.
It’s possible some sort of major election interference scandal will come to light, which could force recounts in one or more states. However, we haven’t seen any indication that this will happen. By all accounts, the polls in the 2024 election were secure and efficient, and citizens were able to cast their votes nationwide with little to no interference.
