Last night a seismic wave hit the fantasy (and real) baseball world as the Tigers and Rangers announced a monster trade. The Tigers sent hometown hero Prince Fielder to Texas for Ian Kinsler.
Here is the breakdown from all of the angles.
Return of Prince’s Power Potential
Fielder will go from the cavernous Comerica Park to the blast friendly Texas Stadium; at least that is the general feeling. But the truth is the park stats for left-handed hitters are roughly the same — 110 park factor for Detroit versus 108 for Texas per Fangraphs. However, Fielder has more potential for power in Texas. This idea is tied to the flexibility of Texas’ lineup. Fielder will have more chances to play DH during his late-thirties decline. The increase will come from his slugging. At Arlington, he has a .130 higher slugging percentage (albeit with a smaller sample size) over his career average. This means more doubles if your league counts them.
Ian Kinsler Drops in Rankings
No way around it but this is a bad move for Kinsler and his dynasty owners. Comerica will take away some of his power. He’ll still be surrounded by a potent offense. Expect his runs to tick up but his stolen bases drop based on team philosophy. ESPN already dropped him from 50 to 66 in their projections. This feels like a comfortable slotting, right between Matt Carpenter and Brandon Phillips.
Prospect #1 Jurickson Profar
The biggest impact will be further down the lineup for both teams. The middle infield traffic jam in Texas has been de-clogged with Kinsler’s departure. Enter uber-prospect Jurickson Profar. While he didn’t light the world on fire during his first taste in the majors. He played 85 games in 2013 and hit only .213 with a near 20 percent strikeout rate. In his defense, he had to adjust to big league hitting while learning four different positions. Now that he’ll have a dedicated position, he’ll be able to fulfill his former #1 prospect status. As a great bonus, he will have eligibility at second and short and, depending on league requirements, third (10 games in ’13) and outfield (4 games). Move him up on your rankings list in both redraft and dynasty leagues. Expect him to go as high as 10th in redraft leagues and be drafted as a shortstop.
Prospect #2 Nick Castellanos
To discuss the Tigers’ number one prospect one needs to look at the league’s best player, Miguel Cabrera. Miggy’s defense is so horrendous it borders on comical. Moving him back to first not only helps their pitching but it frees up space for Nick Castellanos. He is a third baseman first and foremost but has been trying to play outfield. As an outfielder, he has almost no fantasy value. As a third baseman, he is an intriguing option in deeper redraft leagues and a must own in dynasty.
Odds and Ends
Max Scherzer will probably be resigned by the Tigers, which ensures a high number of wins and same ballpark numbers with an improved defense behind him. With Prince departing, Victor Martinez will get the DH spot all to himself. As a domino effect, this means Alex Avilla can be the primary catcher without having to worry about Martinez taking it back over. While the Rangers seem to have a “money is no concern” philosophy by acquiring Fielder’s big contract it seems unlikely that they will now sign Robinson Cano or trade-and-sign for David Price.
Brian Reddoch is a CraveOnline reporter and rabid fan of all teams Seattle. You can follow him on Twitter @ReddReddoch or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
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