You can find these projections in countless magazines, blogs, books, and, of course, the big fantasy sites like ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS. The big dilemma facing anyone is wondering who to trust.
The table below is a consensus for all of the projections with each player’s rank against other players at that position. Then each ranking is averaged out for a score. Read the nerdy fine print at the very bottom to learn how to use. These do not have “weights” added.
For example, Carlos Santana has position flexibility and consistency, so he’ll be ranked much higher than Willin Rosario (who is young enough to have a bit of a bust probability) in the official rankings. However, you can see what a steal Rosario is based on the pure projections stats.
Here are the projections and rankings (remember this doesn’t include weights):
For Catchers, I have include a combined score without stolen bases since most folks don’t look for the catchers to contribute in steals.
Pay attention to the drop-offs between one player at the position and the next guy. The color coding will help you see the drop from one tier to the next.
Boom:
If you include stolen bases, the projection models love Willin Rosario, who actually fairs better than Posey when weights aren’t added to the mix. He has a high chance to be the #1 catcher this year. But, as explained below, he is a catcher and they are prone to injury, inconsistency and fluky years. Entering his prime years, Matt Wieters is (once again) posed to bust out. We have heard it before, but at least you know his floor by now, which isn’t so bad. Carlos Santana’s 22 homers will come pretty cheaply for most on draft days and his average is ranked only 12th for all catchers. The computers think Jonathan Lucroy can repeat last’s year performance. He’s ranked decently across the board.
Bust:
Many will question the lower ranking of Yadier Molina. I know I did when I saw what the computer spat. Yadier wasn’t so hot last year and once catchers stop hitting, few return to form. His lack of power projections doesn’t help his cause. The projections simply don’t like him for fantasy purposes this year. Same goes for Miguel Montero. Last year’s hot new thing, Salvador Perez, isn’t getting much love either. Maybe if Evan Gattis’ season was a little too good to believe? Sure, he’ll give you some power (#3) but that average will cost you (#11).
Here are the basics and ‘need to knows’ to understand how to use:
· Projections for the basic five fantasy baseball categories: SB, HR, RBI, R, and AVG. Projections are based on several trusted projections datasets. A consensus removes the need to put all of your trust in a single source.
· Each player is ranked about the other players in that position. Their overall ranking is displayed in the “RANK SCORE”. That is the average in each of the rankings.
· You’ll notice that several players are higher/lower than you expect to see on a normal “rankings” list. That is because the “Rank Score” is not weighted for such things as position flexibility, stat importance, boom and bust probability, injury history, at-bat projections or year over year consistency.
· Over the next couple weeks, the CraveOnline fantasy team will be releasing their rankings for each position. I recommend using their rankings to give you the best recommendations around.
· I personally take these projections and add weights to determine my own rankings. From there, I’ll build a ‘draft map’ to help me strategize which targeted player to take in the draft. It helps to grab my “undervalued” guys at the right time. Last year, it was Matt Harvey and Starling Marte.
Now go forth and “win baseball” as my non-understanding girlfriend likes to say.
Brian Reddoch is a CraveOnline reporter and rabid fan of all teams Seattle. You can follow him on Twitter @ReddReddoch or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
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