The 87th Annual Academy Awards are shaping up to be the dullest ceremony in over fifteen years. While 2014 was arguably one of the best years for movies in recent memory, most of the truly exciting movies – like The Dance of Reality, Snowpiercer, Nightcrawler, The Guest, Only Lovers Left Alive, Inherent Vice and Selma – either escaped the Academy’s attention altogether, or with what feel like token nominations. Despite all the groundbreaking work done this past year, the Oscar nominations are full of conventional awards bait dramas about white kids coming of age, self-congratulating inside Hollywood dramas, British geniuses, war and British geniuses at war.
And so we are left with a mostly straightforward, non-threatening list of nominees. The winners in most of major Oscar categories seem like foregone conclusions this year (including Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Picture), and the only major surprises seem likely to come in the technical categories. But for those of you playing at home, those technical categories can be a real pain.
Check Out: Oscars 2015: The Complete List of Nominees
Most Oscar pools – at work, the local diner or just at home with friends – force even casual film lovers to predict the winners in categories that are full of nominees they haven’t seen, or have never even heard of. Well, that’s what we’re here for today, to present CraveOnline’s Oscar Predictions 2015, in every category, to guide you through the Oscars and hopefully when you that free meal or a small but respectable bundle of cash. We’ve been following the films, we’ve seen (almost) all of the nominees, and we have a pretty good idea of what’s to come when the Oscars are announced on February 22, 2015.
Check Out: Nine Best Picture Winners That Time Forgot
So below you will find CraveOnline’s Oscar Predictions 2015, complete with the most likely winners in every category (should you want to play it safe), all the potential spoilers (if you want to go for the gusto), the most deserving candidate nominated (if that’s what matters most to you), and who got royally snubbed, because there’s always something great that got left out of every single ballot.
Just take a look, fill out those ballots, and remember: if you win anything at all… we get a cut.
Oscar Predictions 2015: Who Will Win (and Who Should)?
William Bibbiani is the editor of CraveOnline’s Film Channel and the host of The B-Movies Podcast and The Blue Movies Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @WilliamBibbiani.
Oscar Predictions 2015: Who Will Win?
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Best Motion Picture of the Year
Who Will Win: Birdman
Possible Spoiler: Boyhood
Who Should Win: Selma or Whiplash
After sweeping almost all of the guild awards, it seems as though the Academy has all but agreed that Birdman, about a superhero actor trying to prove himself on stage, is the film to beat this year. But if any other film can pull an upset, it's Boyhood.
Who Got Snubbed: Nightcrawler
Dan Gilroy's smart, thrilling and creepy commentary about the downfall of entrepreneurialism and contemporary news is the kind of film the Academy sometimes isn't cool enough to nominate.
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Best Achievement in Directing
Who Will Win: Richard Linklater
Possible Spoiler: Alejandro Gonzalez-Innaritu
Who Should Win: Richard Linklater
Although Birdman has the momentum, the Academy will likely want to reward Richard Linklater for his daring, experimental approach to filming Boyhood. It took Linklater twelve years to make his movie. He's earned a statue. (But don't be surprised if Birdman wins here too.)
Who Got Snubbed: Ava DuVernay
Her powerhouse work on Selma should have made her a shoe-in. Instead, she got snubbed completely, along with most of her crew. It's nothing less than a shame.
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Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
Possible Spoiler: Michael Keaton
Who Should Win: Michael Keaton
The only acting race that isn't a foregone conclusion, Best Actor could go to either Michael Keaton's raw, energetic and funny performance in Birdman or Eddie Redmayne's physically remarkable, sensitive turn in The Theory of Everything. Our money's on Redmayne, but it's Keaton who will probably be remembered for years to come.
Who Got Snubbed: Jake Gyllenhaal
His performance in Nightcrawler is instantly iconic, but this was a ridiculously competitive year and a lot of great actors got shut out.
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Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore
Possible Spoiler: Rosamund Pike
Who Should Win: Julianne Moore
It's not her best film, or even her best performance, but Julianne Moore really is sublime in Still Alice as a woman suffering from early onset Alzheimer's. The competition is thin, with only Rosamund Pike really turning heads as a Hitchcockian femme fatale in Gone Girl. But this is definitely Moore's year. (Finally.)
Who Got Snubbed: Amy Adams
It's easy to overlook a wallflower performance, but Amy Adams really did some of her finest work in Big Eyes, and could have been a real contender if she'd only made the cut.
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Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Possible Spoiler: Birdman or Boyhood
Who Should Win: Nightcrawler
It's neck-and-neck in this category, with Birdman and Boyhood possibly canceling each other out, leaving room for the likewise beloved The Grand Budapest Hotel to scrape out a win. We think it's the best bet, but anything could happen in this category.
Who Got Snubbed: Selma
Dense, complicated and yet always on point, Selma owes a lot of its success to a screenplay that kept history in focus, and put the audience right there in the thick of it.
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Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Who Will Win: The Imitation Game
Possible Spoiler: Whiplash
Who Should Win: Inherent Vice
Conventional wisdom says that The Imitation Game had this category locked down months ago, but with Whiplash bafflingly included in the lineup (it isn't adapted from anything, at all), it's got some serious competition. We suspect Imitation will still win the Oscar, and we lament that Inherent Vice doesn't stand a chance in hell.
Who Got Snubbed: Gone Girl
A strange potboiler got turned into a psychosexual crowdpleaser with a lot more pointed commentary about marriage and the media than we could have predicted. It deserved a nomination, at least.
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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Possible Spoiler: Edward Norton
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons
J.K. Simmons created a villainous hero (or is he a heroic villain?) unlike practically any character ever before put on screen. He's going to win, and he deserves to, but Edward Norton could pull an upset for a performance that mercifully takes the piss out of his artsy-fartsy persona.
Who Got Snubbed: Josh Brolin
As the frozen banana sucking detective in Inherent Vice, he was a scene-stealer. This year he deserved a nomination, especially over Robert Duvall's sappy turn in The Judge.
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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Possible Spoiler: Emma Stone
Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette gives a career-defining performance in Boyhood as the quintessential mother who makes mistakes, but never gives up on her kids. She should have been nominated for Best Actress, but she's definitely going to win for Supporting. Only Emma Stone has a chance of taking this away for her turn in Birdman, but that's a real long shot.
Who Got Snubbed: Jessica Chastain
Her performance in A Most Violent Year was classy, sleazy, loving and surprisingly violent. It may be the best character she's played so far, and that really says something.
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Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Who Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Possible Spoiler: The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Who Should Win: Song of the Sea
With the most popular animated movie of the year left off the ballot altogether (see "Who Got Snubbed"), it seems likely that the stirring and beautifully animated How to Train Your Dragon 2 will get the Oscar this year. But don't count out the indie darlings The Tale of Princess Kaguya and Song of the Sea... if the Academy even bothers to watch them.
Who Got Snubbed: The LEGO Movie
We suspect a lot of Academy voters assumed The LEGO Movie would get nominated no matter what, and decided to vote for lesser known films, kinda like the popular girl who never got asked out to prom.
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Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Who Will Win: Ida
Possible Spoiler: Leviathan
Who Should Win: N/A
This is one of only two categories where we haven't seen every single nominee (yet), so we're going to gamble on the momentum. Ida has dominated the critics awards, and it's a damn good movie to boot. Only Leviathan seems to have the buzz necessary to defeat it, but Best Foreign Language Film isn't always a popularity contest. Theoretically, every nominee has a shot.
Who Got Snubbed: Force Majeure
An absolutely Kubrickian tale of disaster, both natural and marital. We are shocked it didn't make the final cut.
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Best Documentary, Feature
Who Will Win: CitizenFour
Possible Spoiler: Virunga
Who Should Win: N/A
The other category in which we haven't seen every single nominee, but there is still a clear frontrunner. CitizenFour, about controversial whistleblower Edward Snowden. It's topical, acclaimed and probably going to dominate the competition.
Who Got Snubbed: Life Itself
The acclaimed documentary about Roger Ebert seemed destined to win, until it failed to get nominated. Filmmaker Steve James also directed Hoop Dreams, a famously snubbed documentary that Ebert himself championed. So maybe this snub shouldn't have come as such a surprise.
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Best Achievement in Cinematography
Who Will Win: Birdman
Possible Spoiler: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who Should Win: Birdman
The most impressive aspect of Birdman was Emmanuel Lubezki's cinematography, which made practically the entire film look like a single, impossibly complicated, uninterrupted take. Lubezki also won for last year's Gravity, so if the Academy decides to spread the love this could go to The Grand Budapest Hotel, but we doubt it.
Who Got Snubbed: Selma
Absolutely breathtaking cinematography by Bradford Young, who also deserved serious consideration for his work on A Most Violent Year.
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Best Achievement in Editing
Who Will Win: Boyhood
Possible Spoiler: American Sniper or Whiplash
Who Should Win: Boyhood or Whiplash
With Birdman out of the race, it's Boyhood that seems most likely to win for Best Editing, especially since its very concept depends on the seamless transition from one year to another as the actors age on camera. American Sniper could get points for its action sequences, and Whiplash might benefit from being the jazziest film on the ballot, but Boyhood is definitely the film to beat in this category.
Who Got Snubbed: Edge of Tomorrow
The best editing of the year, hands down. Naturally it got snubbed entirely. (Grumble-grumble...)
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Best Achievement in Production Design
Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Possible Spoiler: Interstellar or Into the Woods
Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Wes Anderson's films have always been marvels of production design, and The Grand Budapest Hotel may be the grandest of all. It's the real standout here, and the most likely to win. But the well-researched sci-fi sets of Interstellar or the gloomy fairy tale locales of Into the Woods have a shot too.
Who Got Snubbed: Snowpiercer
The coolest train in movie history, in which every car represented a different, mostly unfortunate aspect of humanity. Snowpiercer needed amazing production design to tell its story, and amazing production design was what it gave us.
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Best Achievement in Costume Design
Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Possible Spoiler: Into the Woods or Maleficent
Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design usually goes to the film with the frilliest gowns, so don't discount Maleficent or Into the Woods, but the colorful and varied costumes of The Grand Budapest Hotel are standouts as well, and it seems likely to earn an Oscar for them.
Who Got Snubbed: Guardians of the Galaxy
Clever, strange and beautiful costumes helped make Guardians of the Galaxy one of the most distinctive space operas in recent memory. It deserves a spot on the ballot.
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Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Who Will Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Possible Spoiler: Foxcatcher or The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
The Academy has a tendency to ignore sci-fi films in this category in favor of subtle age work or prosthetics, but we suspect the enormous popularity of Guardians of the Galaxy gives it the edge. Still, don't be surprised if the Oscar goes to a film with a fake nose or an aged Tilda Swinton instead.
Who Got Snubbed: X-Men: Days of Future Past
These are actually the three films we'd have put on the ballot too, but if there was room for one more, we'd have made room for the latest X-Men epic.
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Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Possible Spoiler: The Imitation Game or Interstellar
Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alexandre Desplat has been nominated eight times without a single win, and this year he's nominated twice, for The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game. He'll probably win for one of them, and we suspect his lively music for Budapest has the advantage. But Hans Zimmer's epic score for Interstellar could eke out a surprise win here. Don't rule him out.
Who Got Snubbed: Birdman
It may not have been a terribly nuanced score, but the percussive music from Birdman was absolutely integral to the film's unforgettable sense of momentum. It was declared ineligible because other music was included in the score... just like a lot of other eligible movies. This snub baffles us.
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Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Who Will Win: The LEGO Movie
Possible Spoiler: Selma
Who Should Win: The LEGO Movie
Best Original Song is a category that could right one of two wrongs: either the snub for The LEGO Movie or the many snubs for Selma. We think "Everything is Awesome" is the better song, but "Glory" is much more powerful. This one will be a close race, but "Awesome" is probably going to come out on top due to its cheerful catchiness.
Who Got Snubbed: Rudderless
William H. Macy's drama about a father keeping his dead son alive by covering his music may have divided critics, but the music was phenomenal and, what's more, integral to the story. It's hard not to cry while listening to the Rudderless soundtrack. It deserved more consideration than it clearly got.
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Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Interstellar
Possible Spoiler: American Sniper or Birdman
Who Should Win: Interstellar
The Best Sound Editing category honors the creation of new sounds for a movie, and no film had cooler, newer sound effects than Interstellar this year. American Sniper is a popular action film and Birdman might sneak in there based on its Best Picture popularity, but Interstellar is the film to beat in this category.
Who Got Snubbed: Guardians of the Galaxy
One of the best sounding films of the year depended on a lot of imaginative new sound designs. We're shocked that it didn't make the cut.
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Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Who Will Win: Birdman
Possible Spoiler: American Sniper or Interstellar
Who Should Win: Whiplash
Interstellar may have had great new sound effects but it was arguably the worst mixed movie of the year. It might earn an Oscar in a SFX/VFX sweep but Birdman seems likelier to earn the Academy's votes. Just don't discount American Sniper entirely, and hope that the Academy notices that Whiplash actually has the best sound mixing of the year.
Who Got Snubbed: Guardians of the Galaxy
This movie just sounds cool, okay?
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Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Interstellar
Possible Spoiler: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes or Guardians of the Galaxy
Who Should Win: Interstellar
The Academy doesn't like to award frivolous movies in the Best Visual Effects category, and Interstellar is the most obviously "important" film nominated this year. It's going to win unless Guardians is just super popular, or the Academy decides to right the wrongs of previous years and give an Apes movie its proper due.
Who Got Snubbed: Noah
Darren Aronofsky's ambitious biblical epic didn't just have great visual effects, it used those effects to tell a surreal, remarkable story in an artistic and unexpected way. It should have been nominated and, arguably, it should have won.
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Best Short Film, Live Action
Who Will Win: Parvaneh
Possible Spoiler: Boogaloo and Graham
Who Should Win: Boogaloo and Graham
We absolutely fell in love with Boogaloo and Graham, a wonderful comedy about young boys who become too attached to their pet chickens for their own good, but the Oscars like to reward live-action shorts that seem like mini-features in this category. Parvaneh, about an immigrant struggling to send money home to her family, is probably the safe bet. It's sweet and impressively dramatic and feels like a bigger film than it technically is.
Who Got Snubbed: N/A
We haven't seen enough of the potential nominees in this category to make a fair assessment of what got snubbed.
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Best Documentary, Short Subject
Who Will Win: Joanna
Possible Spoiler: Our Curse
Who Should Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Two shockingly emotional documentaries seem to be the standouts this year: Joanna, about a dying mother trying to leave behind a legacy with her son, and Our Curse, about two parents wondering what their seriously afflicted baby's future will be like. Joanna feels more hopeful to us, and we think that gives it the edge, but Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 is arguably the most nuanced Documentary Short nominated this year.
Who Got Snubbed: N/A
We haven't seen enough of the potential nominees in this category either.
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Best Short Film, Animated
Who Will Win: Feast
Possible Spoiler: The Bigger Picture or The Dam Keeper
Who Should Win: Feast
It's an excellent year for the Animated Short category, but Feast, the story of a dog's relationship with his master from the perspective of his food bowl (which played in front of theatrical screenings of Big Hero 6), is easily the most sublime nominee this year. But The Bigger Picture is more innovative and ambitious, and The Dam Keeper is a real tear-jerker. They've got a real shot at pulling out an upset.
Who Got Snubbed: N/A
We very much liked Bill Plympton's creepy potential nominee Footprints, but again, we haven't seen enough of the potential nominees in this category either.
