Weather experts tracking the next hurricane after Rafael are looking at two places in the Caribbean for the middle of November. Hurricane Rafael looks to be looping around in the Gulf and eventually dissipating without too much impact on land over the next few days. Hurricanes in November are fairly rare as it is the last month in the typical hurricane season for the US, but high water temperatures in the middle of the Atlantic basin are still contributing enough energy to create more tropical storms. If a system were to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, it would be called Sara.
Where could the next hurricane develop by mid-November?
Over a week’s time, the next hurricane has the potential of forming in the Caribbean gyre near Nicaragua and the northern region between Cuba and Puerto Rico.
Meteorologist Brian Shields, or Mr. Weatherman on YouTube, on Friday is looking at rainclouds that are projected to circulate in the Caribbean gyre by next week on November 15. He believes a system could spin up as moisture builds from the eastern Caribbean toward the west over the next seven days. Accuweather is looking at this region as well for a low chance of storm development from November 13 to 16.
In a report on November 8 at 12:27 PM ET, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance north of the Dominican Republic that has a 10% chance of developing into a named storm. This is a reduction from 20% from an earlier report, so storm formation is not looking likely. Similarly, Accuweather believes there’s a low chance of this system to develop between November 9 and 10.
However, weather analyst Ryan Hall on Friday said he is monitoring a similar region based on projections from the American model (GFS). It has a hurricane potentially heading toward Florida by Tuesday, November 19. He notes, however, that any model projections beyond 120 hours is not particularly reliable. What it does show is that there’s enough energy in the region for these late November storms to develop.
