The latest update for Tropical Storm Sara, which has a small chance of becoming Hurricane Sara, has its path curling toward Florida over the next week. As the storm has progressed over the last three days, the system continues to hug the northern coastline of Honduras, causing devastating mudslides and widespread flooding in the area. Fortunately, the track for the storm remains fairly consistent with yesterday’s forecast, which is generally good news for the United States. Here’s what spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara reveal about its current path.
What is Tropical Storm Sara’s track today?
The track for Tropical Storm Sara, according to the latest models on November 15, has it moving relatively slowly in the Caribbean Sea before passing through the Yucatan Peninsula in a northwestern direction. It will then be pushed by a front moving across the United States and curve toward Florida, likely reaching the state around Thursday, November 21.
According to a report by the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) on November 15, the vast majority of possible tracks for Tropical Storm Sara has it sitting in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico in about five days. Continuing those lines forward have it eventually making landfall somewhere in Florida.
This more or less matches the spaghetti models from Tropical Tidbits as well, though some paths have it reducing in speed significantly and hovering closer to the Bay of Campeche. If that comes to pass, it will be more unclear as to where the storm will make landfall in the United States.
Either way, the strength of Tropical Storm Sara is expected to drop as it moves over land, weakening due to wind shear. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the storm becoming a tropical depression by the time it gets through Mexico by Monday, November 18. The intensity guidance for the storm from Tropical Tidbits also indicate that it will most likely remain as a tropical storm or tropical depression over the next five days.
Due to the colder waters around the Gulf coastline of the United States in mid-November, the storm is unlikely to gather too much strength while in the Gulf and weaken further as it nears Florida.
